Author Archives: Phoenix Investor Relations

Peter Kaye – Dalton Strategic Partnership (DSP)

We see evidence for a continuation of the bull market in the US which can be found by looking at the strength in the US economy and US companies. While the headlines on poor housing data and a slowly recovering labour market seem to get the most air time, lead indicators for the US economy are telling a very different story. US companies are in great shape, for several quarters earnings estimates have surpassed expectations by a wide margin. We are now approaching the first quarter earnings season and the most recent releases from Accenture and Oracle imply the surprise trend is still intact and in addition, US corporate balance sheets are pristine. In addition to monetary expansion we have witnessed a rotation by investors out of other assets into equities which will provide fuel for the next stage of the bull market. A key driver for this will be valuation differences between assets. While there are clearly negatives such as the oil price, the level of the US dollar and the \\\’QE2 exit\\\’, we believe there remains much upside to the current US market

we maintain our bullish outlook on the North American equity sector and this seems to be backed up by strong flows into the sector, not only from US investors but also now here in the UK.

Swiss Asset Management

Switzerland is global market leader in crossborder private banking

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Assets managed in Switzerland

CHF 5,600 billion managed in Switzerland

In total, banks in Switzerland managed assets of around CHF 5,600 billion at end-2009, up 3.7% or CHF 200 billion from the previous year. Assets managed include the following items: securities, fiduciary deposits, savings and investment liabilities to clients and term deposits.

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At end-2009, securities holdings at market value came to CHF 4,508 billion; of these, roughly 62% came from institutional investors, 29% from private clients and just under 10% from companies. Custody accounts for foreign clients comprised 55%, for domestic clients 45%. Between September 2009 and October 2010, securities holdings of foreign private investors fell by around CHF 68.9 billion or 9.6%. This was mainly due to currency effects, i.e. the appreciation of the Swiss franc, rather than outflows of client money.

Source: Wealth Management in Switzerland – SBA – February 2011

Global assets

Significant increase in global assets

Global assets at the end of 2009 were USD 111,500 billion (BCG 2010a), roughly the same as the previous high seen in 2007 (see figure 1-1). This represents growth of USD 11,500 billion or 11.5% over the year, mainly driven by the recovery in financial markets. It is estimated that in 2014 global assets will reach USD 147.5 billion.

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Source: Wealth Management in Switzerland – SBA – February 2011

SWF Update

Sovereign wealth funds are developing more in-house portfolio management teams after the global crisis according to Cerulli Associates. We confirm that this is a trend we have been seeing for some time. While most of the $3 trillion estimated to be managed by SWFs assets continues to be outsourced or passively managed in index replication funds and ETFs, many of the biggest funds have set up in-house Alpha teams with very aggressive return objectives such as doubling their money in three years. This resembles a bar-bell investment approach on a large scale, marrying very cautious outsourcing and passive investing with in-house risk taking in the form of highly concentrated portfolios. The performance of many SWFs was hit particularly hard by the crisis so it is not surprising to see a change in investment approach.

Brokers “sell” meetings with CEOs and CFOs for $4,500 p/meeting at conferences and $7,500-$10,000 p/meeting on non-deal roadshows

No wonder the sell-side is so aggressive in “selling” corporate access to issuers.  The meetings are worth a lot to them, according to an annual survey by Greenwich Associates, as one-third of U.S. equity research commissions are being used to compensate the sell-side for arranging meetings with corporate management teams.  One third of the market in U.S. equity research commissions, estimated to be worth $12.1 billion, equates to $4 billion for corporate access, in the U.S. alone.

50% of U.S. institutions now use commission sharing arrangements but institutional commission payments continue to fall because trading volumes have dropped and the buy-side continues to shift volume to electronic systems.  Nearly 40% of U.S. equity trading is now executed electronically.  This shrinking market has placed increasing pressure on sell-side profitability.

The annual Greenwich survey estimated that brokerage commissions paid by U.S. institutions on domestic equities fell 13% to an estimated $12.1 billion per annum in the first quarter of 2010.  An estimated 53% of these commissions, or $6.4 billion, was for research, corporate access and sales services not related directly to trade execution.  33% ($4 billion) is spent on corporate access, including 19% ($2.3 billion) for facilitating access to corporate management on non-deal roadshows and 14% ($1.7 billion) for conferences.

According to a post on Inside Investor Relations by Brad Allen, The Wall St Transcript (TWST), which provides software for sell-side firms to manage their corporate access programs under the MeetMax CAM name, estimates that 200,000 one-on-ones take place at conferences annually.  On average, a meeting at a conference is worth an estimated $4,500.  Integrity Research, which researches the equity research industry, reported that TWST also put a range of between $7,500 and $10,000 per meeting on the more difficult to estimate non-deal road shows.

As corporate access has become such an important business for the sell-side, how much does it benefit the companies allocating so much of their valuable executive time?  If they are being taken to meet bona fide long-term shareholders and potential shareholders it is clearly worthwhile.  But if valuable executive time is being spent with the wrong investors, there is clearly a problem.

If a hedge fund is effectively paying “your” broker $10,000 to meet with you, what is their agenda and is it in your interest?  Is your company or one of its peers the real subject of the meeting?

And remember, not all investors are paying the broker the same amount.  So who gets priority?  In most cases it’s the investor who pays the most.  The reality of today’s market is that the sell-side is simply not able to treat each investor impartially.  It has a clear conflict of interest between the needs of its client (the investor) and its steed (the issuer).

Issuers should be concerned that the marketing process lacks appropriate transparency and companies are potential victims.  There are clear conflicts of interest among financial intermediaries and there is abuse.  In our opinion the disclosure of trading conflicts is completely inadequate and companies should demand much more transparency from the sell-side.

For the Greenwich report please click on http://www.greenwich.com/Greenwich0.5/CMA/campaign_messages/campaign_docs/naeif-10-GLG.GR.pdf

Update on GCC SWFs

According to a study by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies the value of the GCC’s external financial portfolio fell from $1.3 trillion in 2007 to $1.2 trillion in 2008.

Total assets held by SWFs in the GCC states are estimated to be worth more than $1 trillion.  If assets held by central banks – estimated to be worth $460bn – are added, the value of the combined portfolio of the Gulf’s SWFs totals $1.5 trillion.

According to the projections by the IMF, the assets of international SWFs will range from $5-$10 trillion over the next five years.  International Financial Services London estimates that the funds’ assets will increase to $5 trillion by 2010 and $10 trillion in 2015.

The UAE has eight international sovereign funds – four in Abu Dhabi, three in Dubai and one in Ras Al Khaimah.

Abu Dhabi has ADIA, Mubadala, the International Petroleum Investment Company (Ipic) and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (Adic).  Dubai has Investment Corporation of Dubai (ICD), Istithmar World and DIC, while Ras Al Khaimah has RAK Investment Authority.

The GCC states have been allocating part of their SWF investments to Arab states, especially Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Syria in sectors, such as industry, real estate and infrastructure.  Asia and Africa are also seen increasingly as promising markets.

The study said GCC investment bodies that supervise the management of SWFs should work together to define a new map for combined or individual financial investment through the introduction of new priorities in their external investment programs that depend on diversification.

The study said the GCC sovereign funds should implement five measures:

– The transfer of knowledge through investments.
– Consolidation of government companies.
– The alleviation of the impact of the economic crises.
– The consolidation of regional and international co-operation through the setting up of joint funds at the regional and international levels by GCC funds.
– The implementation of reforms to boost confidence.

What will be the impact on IR of a move from Active to Passive?

Some say the move from Active to Passive investment strategies is inevitable because the cost/performance differential can’t be justified.

A recent survey by the IBM Institute for Business Value covering 2,750 investment industry executives, including those at endowments, foundations, and SWFs, predicts that passive investments will overtake actively managed funds.  Today 70% of global assets are in active funds, which charge 1.25% on average.  But over the next three years, 65% of respondents planned to move to passive strategies which charge less than 0.2%.  Extrapolating the data suggests that in 20 years, 85-90% of assets will be in passive strategies, with the remaining 10-15% in hedge funds, private equity and other alternative asset classes.

But just as the recent financial crisis has exposed the flaws in efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), so a move to more indexing could provide opportunities for active managers.